Trend of Madagascar’s Trade Flows in COMESA: A Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

Very little is known about the impact of Madagascar joining the COMESA FTA on the country exports. This study addressed this issue by developing a gravity model to examine Madagascar’s trade flow with COMESA member States. The empirical results suggest, as expected, that distance is the first major constraint to Malagasy exports. The results also show that non-tariff barriers have a statistically significant impact on the flow of Madagascar's exports. One basic lesson that can be drawn from this paper is that, contrary to what some researchers think, gravity models can perfectly explain Africa trade