Application of gravity model to investigate the spaghetti bowl effect. Case study of Madagascar within the SADC and COMESA

Abstract

Since Jacob Viner (1950), several studies using a gravity model have been conducted to discern the effects of regional economic communities (RECs) in Africa on trade. Overall, these studies have found that there is a large potential for unexploited trade between African countries. In empirical literature, multiple regional memberships are a neglected area because few studies have been done in this regard. This study tries to address this gap and proposes to study the case of Madagascar within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). To answer the question of which REC is best for Madagascar, we have adopted a dual methodology. The first is the use of a gravity model to estimate the intensity of Madagascar's trade in these two RECs. The second is based on the analysis of regional integration indicators. At the end of our study, we found that COMESA presents more commercial advantages for Madagascar than SADC.