MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING UNDER SUPPLY CHAIN UNCERTAINTY: A STUDY ON PROCUREMENT COST CONTROL IN CNPC

Abstract

The growing instability of global supply chains has forced companies to rethink how they buy things and make decisions. This research examines the impact of managerial decision-making styles on procurement cost control at China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) amid supply chain uncertainty. Based on Behavioural Strategy and Upper Echelons Theory, the study investigates the impact of cognitive biases, risk perception, and analytical orientation of CNPC managers on cost outcomes during disruptions. We used a convergent mixed-methods approach, which included a survey of 180 mid- and senior-level managers, behavioural simulations, and qualitative interviews. Employing fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) and regression modelling, findings indicate that analytical and integrative decision-making styles improve procurement cost efficiency, whereas intuition-based decisions worsen overruns in conditions of high uncertainty. Cognitive adaptability lessens these effects by letting managers change their decisions on the fly. The findings enhance comprehension of the behavioural mechanisms underlying strategic procurement management and offer practical recommendations for bolstering decision-making resilience in large-scale energy enterprises.